A Hawkish Start For The Warsh Regime

The June FOMC meeting signaled a hawkish shift in the Fed's stance under Chair Warsh, with elevated inflation forecasts and an indefinite delay in policy rate normalization. The Committee also announced five task forces to overhaul its framework, likely stalling major policy changes for the remainder of the year.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The June FOMC meeting resulted in a hawkish shift under Chair Warsh, characterized by higher inflation projections and no rate cuts until 2028.
• 2.The Federal Reserve is initiating five task forces to review policy framework, communication, and balance sheet tools, likely delaying major adjustments until year-end.
• 3.Core PCE inflation forecasts were revised higher for 2026 and 2027, indicating persistent underlying inflation pressures.

Table of Contents

• A hawkish start for the Warsh regime
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix

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