Signal Over Noise: Weekly Market Outlook

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair led to a massive correction in overextended precious metals markets despite a calm response in fixed income. Meanwhile, US earnings remain strong, but investors are increasingly demanding tangible revenue results from heavy AI capital expenditures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair triggered a violent correction in precious metals (Gold -8.5%, Silver -26%) while the reaction in fixed income was relatively benign.
• 2.US Q4 earnings season is strong with a median EPS beat of 3.8%, though markets are now discriminating between AI spend and actual revenue generation.
• 3.UBS maintains a steepening bias in the yield curve and expects two more Fed rate cuts in 2026 (June and September).

Table of Contents

• Weekly - Regional View US
• Audio transcription
• What's the signal for the market?
• Global asset class preferences definitions
• Appendix
• Risk information

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