Spring Forward

The U.S. economy is defying geopolitical turmoil and record-low consumer sentiment with a massive AI-driven tech capex boom and industrial resilience. However, inflation is rising back to 3.8% driven by conflict-related energy shocks in the Middle East.

Key Takeaways

• 1.A stark divergence exists between record-low consumer sentiment and record-high equity markets, despite geopolitical tensions.
• 2.Artificial intelligence is driving a massive chip rally and unprecedented capital expenditure, with four major tech firms planning over $700 billion in capex.
• 3.Ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving energy price shocks and pressuring U.S. inflation, which rose to 3.8% in April.

Table of Contents

• Spring Forward?
• Since You Asked...
• U.S. Job Data
• Engines of Growth…
• Dislocation, Dislocation, Dislocation
• More Greasy Stuff
• Check the Stats
• Keeping Track
• The Rest of the Story... Choke Points
• The Home Front
• You Can't Handle the Truth...
• Talking Points
• Brace for Glitches, Default Settings / The Likelihood of Unlikely Events
• The DNA of Business
• Real Estate and Construction Outlook
• More Real Estate Related…
• Will Life Ever Be the Same?

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