Semis Finally Blink

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is finally showing signs of stress as it breaks technical trend lines after an aggressive AI-driven rally. Current metrics place the sector in historical bubble territory, particularly relative to its 200-day moving average and rising interest rates.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Semiconductor Index (SOX) is showing technical stress, breaking its steep trend line and 8-day moving average.
• 2.Current semiconductor valuations are in historical bubble territory, with the SOX trading 62% above its 200-day moving average.
• 3.There is a significant disconnect between semiconductor performance and rising 10-year US Treasury yields.

Table of Contents

• SOX cracks
• SOX superlatives
• Shorts
• Immune to rates?

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