The Market Ear
May 13, 2026
Rates Want Higher
Market ReportRates Govt BondsCommoditiesMacro Economic IndicatorsEnergy
Global bond markets are nearing a critical breaking point as US and Japanese yields test major breakout levels amid rising oil-driven inflation. Despite these pressures, bond volatility remains suspiciously low, suggesting an unstable market setup.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global interest rates are simultaneously pressing against major breakout levels while volatility remains unusually low.
- 2.Inflation is being driven higher by 'sticky' energy prices, with April headline CPI rising to 3.8%.
- 3.Japanese 10-year and 30-year yields are entering aggressive breakout phases that risk triggering a squeeze.
Table of Contents
- Rates Want Higher
- US 10 year
- US 2 year
- Oil starting to bite
- Too hot to handle
- Breakevens baby
- Will bond volatility MOVE?
- From Japan with love
- The 30 year
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Authors
Author(s)
Securities
US 10-Year TreasuryUS 2-Year TreasuryJapan 10-Year YieldJapan 30-Year YieldGasoline RBOB
Themes
Synchronized Global Rate BreakoutsOil-Driven Sticky InflationVolatility-Yield Disconnect
Regions
North AmericaAsia PacificGlobalUnited StatesJapan