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The Market Ear

May 15, 2026

Rates Breaking Out

Market ReportRates Govt BondsEquitiesVolatilityOther

US and Japanese government bond yields are entering breakout and parabolic phases, threatening to destabilize an equity market that has become detached from rates volatility.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.US 10-year yields have broken out of a major technical triangle formation and the 100-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day.
  • 2.Japanese 10-year yields are in a parabolic 'panic mode', creating a destabilizing global macro environment for equities.
  • 3.A significant divergence has formed between equity indices (NDX/SPX) and bond market signals (Inverse Yields/MOVE Volatility).

Table of Contents

  • Rates Breaking Out
  • The breakout
  • Chaos levels
  • Some like it parabolic
  • Dangerous divergence
  • Rates volatility

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Authors

Jaccendy

Securities

US 10-year Treasury yieldUS 30-Year Treasury YieldJapanese 10-Year Govt BondNDXSPXMOVE

Themes

Bond-Equity DivergenceRate Volatility vs. Absolute Levels

Regions

North AmericaAsia PacificUnited StatesJapan