High-Rate Holding Pattern

The U.S. housing market remains stagnant in a high-interest rate environment, with affordability at decade-lows and household wealth now more concentrated in stocks than real estate.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The U.S. housing market is in a 'high-rate holding pattern' where neither the predicted crash nor a recovery has occurred, leaving activity sluggish.
• 2.U.S. household wealth tied to stocks and mutual funds ($58 trillion) has surpassed wealth tied to real estate ($48 trillion).
• 3.Affordability relief is not expected soon, with mortgage rates projected to remain above 6% until the end of 2027.

Table of Contents

• High-rate holding pattern
• Weakest start
• Housing inactivity
• Active listings
• Median list price down 2% YOY
• No affordability relief
• Residential construction
• Smaller than equities

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