1997 Mode

The report highlights a 1997-style market melt-up driven by semiconductor hardware scarcity and leveraged ETF flows, primarily centered around South Korean hardware giants. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has lost speculative leadership to the AI trade as semiconductor volatility and spot prices rise in tandem.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The AI trade has transitioned into a hardware scarcity and capacity play, causing semiconductors to trade like spot commodities rather than normal equities.
• 2.Market psychology is in a 'melt-up' phase characterized by rising spot prices and rising implied volatility (VIX) simultaneously.
• 3.Bitcoin momentum has faded as speculative capital shifted aggressively toward AI and semiconductor themes since autumn.

Table of Contents

• 1997 mode
• Hardware scarcity premium
• Semis overshooting fundamentals
• This is your market
• Levered flows
• Who cares about KOSPI?
• Got hedges?
• BTC blues
• Semis stole the show

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