Beijing Summit: Why No News Is the Bullish Scenario

The upcoming Beijing summit between Xi and Trump is expected to yield a 'managed equilibrium' of stability rather than a major deal. For markets, the absence of negative headlines and incremental progress on trade deliverables like aircraft orders constitute a bullish scenario.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The least eventful outcome of the Xi-Trump summit is likely the most bullish for markets as it represents stability and de-escalation.
• 2.Trade levers have shifted from simple tariffs to structural control over critical minerals and rare earth supply chains.
• 3.Key deliverables to watch include a potential large Boeing order and a bilateral Board of Trade to manage the relationship.

Table of Contents

• A different balance of power than in Busan
• The Communist Party's reading: a 'giant with a limp'
• The realistic base case for deliverables
• The Taiwan wildcard
• What doesn't get resolved
• Positioning implications
• The longer arc

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