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Société Générale

February 12, 2026

Morning Briefing

Daily UpdateCommoditiesFXMacro Economic IndicatorsOther

Societe Generale has scrapped its call for a March Fed rate cut following exceptionally strong US employment data, while the US House moves to block tariffs on Canada.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.SG Economics has cancelled their forecast for a March Fed rate cut, now seeing June as the earliest possibility with risks of a prolonged pause.
  • 2.U.S. labor market data significantly exceeded expectations with 172k private payroll gains in January, driving a hawkish repricing of the Fed outlook.
  • 3.The US House of Representatives voted to overturn President Trump’s Canada tariffs by terminating the national emergency invoked in Feb-25.

Table of Contents

  • OVERNIGHT NEWS
  • CALENDAR
  • MARKET REVIEW
  • OUTLOOK
  • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
  • APPENDIX

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Authors

Kenneth BrouxSantosh EjanthkarTanmay PurohitJuliette Guillaume

Securities

AUDUSDEURUSD10-year US TreasuryNKY10-year Interest Rate Swap (EUR)

Themes

Economic Resilience vs Inflation RisksHawkish Central Bank PivotProtectionism and Trade Policy

Regions

North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesUnited KingdomIndia