Société Générale
February 12, 2026
Morning Briefing
Daily UpdateCommoditiesFXMacro Economic IndicatorsOther
Societe Generale has scrapped its call for a March Fed rate cut following exceptionally strong US employment data, while the US House moves to block tariffs on Canada.
Key Takeaways
- 1.SG Economics has cancelled their forecast for a March Fed rate cut, now seeing June as the earliest possibility with risks of a prolonged pause.
- 2.U.S. labor market data significantly exceeded expectations with 172k private payroll gains in January, driving a hawkish repricing of the Fed outlook.
- 3.The US House of Representatives voted to overturn President Trump’s Canada tariffs by terminating the national emergency invoked in Feb-25.
Table of Contents
- OVERNIGHT NEWS
- CALENDAR
- MARKET REVIEW
- OUTLOOK
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- APPENDIX
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Authors
Kenneth BrouxSantosh EjanthkarTanmay PurohitJuliette Guillaume
Securities
AUDUSDEURUSD10-year US TreasuryNKY10-year Interest Rate Swap (EUR)
Themes
Economic Resilience vs Inflation RisksHawkish Central Bank PivotProtectionism and Trade Policy
Regions
North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesUnited KingdomIndia
