GLD: SPDR Gold Shares Research Hub

Recent gold market performance has been defined by significant volatility, characterized by a sharp 4.5% decline in the LBMA price followed by a subsequent rebound to US$4,741/oz. Macroeconomic headwinds, including US 10-year Treasury yields approaching 4.6% and a strengthening US dollar, initially pressured the security amid higher-than-expected inflation data. However, shifting market sentiment and easing inflation expectations linked to Middle East truce prospects provided a late-period catalyst for gold's recovery. From a structural standpoint, India's decision to increase gold import duties from 6% to 15% presents a notable challenge for consumer demand in a key market. Institutional research also highlights a 'higher-for-longer' rate environment, which increases risks for low-quality tech while potentially supporting cyclical exposures. Global monetary policy remains hawkish, as evidenced by recent rate hikes from central banks in Australia and Norway to combat persistent inflation. Looking forward, GLD investors remain focused on geopolitical developments, specifically the high-stakes US-China meeting between Trump and Xi, alongside forthcoming US inflation releases.