Security
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Market Research & Analysis
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is currently navigating a complex environment characterized by softening domestic economic data and broader shifts in global energy markets. Recent reports highlight that crude oil prices have fallen by 4% due to optimism regarding Middle East peace, which typically poses a headwind for energy-linked currencies. Domestically, Canada has experienced downside surprises in both inflation and growth data, contributing to a trend of falling yields that has weighed on the currency's relative performance against a resilient US dollar. Despite these immediate pressures, quantitative modeling, such as the T.E.A.M. model, maintains a long position on North American energy-linked currencies, including the CAD. This positioning suggests that structural factors or terms-of-trade benefits may still provide underlying support relative to weakening growth signals in the Eurozone. Overall, while tactical headwinds exist from declining commodity prices and soft macro data, institutional research remains focused on the CAD's role as a key energy-linked asset within the G10 space.
6 reports available
FX Sentiment Report
The Scotiabank FX Sentiment Report details a second consecutive week of growth in aggregate USD long positions, reaching $16.5bn, driven largely by a sharp increase in net short positions for the Canadian Dollar.
Weekly Flows and CFTC Positioning
This report details recent CFTC speculative positioning as of June 2nd, highlighting a record-breaking build in JPY short positions and a significant deterioration in CAD sentiment.
FX Sentiment Report
Speculative USD long positions rose sharply to $10.5bn as markets repriced Fed tightening expectations. Sentiment shifted negatively for the CAD, GBP, JPY, and EUR, while AUD bullishness hit record gross long levels.
USMCA Break-Up: An Underrated Risk
This report evaluates the risks surrounding the USMCA, concluding that while a break-up is possible, it is unlikely due to the high economic and political costs. Current market pricing shows minimal anticipation of a treaty failure, leaving room for volatility if negotiations toward a 2027 renewal falter.
Relative Yield Moves and US Dollar Gains
MUFG analyzes the continued strength of the US dollar driven by yield divergence as growth and inflation prints weaken in Europe, UK, and Japan. The report also highlights a bearish outlook for the Mexican Peso following a credit downgrade and weak Q1 GDP data.
FX Macro Quant Carry ToT Growth and Fiscal Divergences
J.P. Morgan's FX Macro Quant report highlights the continued performance of carry, fiscal, and commodity ToT themes in G10, while noting a reduction in the USD growth strategy weight to a neutral +40%.
All reports
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FX Sentiment Report
Scotiabank · Jun 2, 2026
Weekly Flows and CFTC Positioning
Scotiabank · Jun 8, 2026
FX Sentiment Report
Scotiabank · May 28, 2026
USMCA Break-Up: An Underrated Risk
Natixis · Jun 6, 2026
Relative Yield Moves and US Dollar Gains
MUFG · May 22, 2026
FX Macro Quant Carry ToT Growth and Fiscal Divergences
J.P. Morgan · May 13, 2026