Global Week Ahead: Separation Anxiety

This report examines the legal and economic implications of potential separation movements in Quebec and Alberta while previewing major US inflation data and global central bank outlooks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Canadian separation risk (Quebec and Alberta) is a rising discussion point for global clients, though markets currently downplay the risk via tight provincial bond spreads.
• 2.The US CPI report for April will be critical for assessing the 'second-round' passthrough effects of inflation, with core CPI estimated at +0.4% m/m.
• 3.Declining US jobless claims may be illusory, reflecting labor hoarding and demographic exits (55+ workers) rather than true labor market strength.

Table of Contents

• Next Week's Risk Dashboard
• Separation Anxiety
• HOW REAL IS SEPARATION RISK IN CANADA?
• The Timelines
• Gauging Support
• The Risk
• What They Want
• Can They Separate?
• The Economics
• US INFLATION—THE SECOND ROUND IS ALREADY HERE
• FALLING US JOBLESS BENEFIT CLAIMANTS—USEFUL OR ILLUSORY?
• GLOBAL MACRO ROUND-UP
• US—Tracking the Consumer Into Q2
• Canada—Tidbits
• Australia Budget
• Europe—UK Macro
• LatAm—Peru's Hold
• FORECASTS & DATA
• Global Central Bank Watch

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