Global Week Ahead

Scotiabank's report analyzes the durability of the US bond selloff, arguing it remains range-bound, and highlights critical upcoming US employment data revisions. It also previews a busy week of central bank decisions and Canadian bank earnings.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The recent US Treasury bond selloff is likely range-bound rather than a sustainable trend, with yields still within 2023 levels.
• 2.Upcoming annual benchmarking revisions in September may wipe out earlier 2026 job gains due to overstatements in the BLS birth-death model.
• 3.South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to hike rates by 25bps, while New Zealand (RBNZ) and South Korea (BoK) are likely to maintain current rates with a hawkish bias.

Table of Contents

• Is This One For Real?
• Fiscal Deficits & Crowding Out
• The National Saving and Borrowing Picture
• Fed Hikes?
• Coming Annual Revisions May Wipe out Jobs
• Birth-Death Model Adjustments May be Overstating Job Gains
• Other Assorted Treasury Drivers
• Warnings
• CANADA'S ECONOMY—A SOLID DOMESTIC ECONOMY?
• CANADIAN BANK EARNINGS—A HIGH BAR
• CENTRAL BANKS—HIKES and CUES
• GLOBAL MACRO—INFLATION WILL BE THE FOCUS
• Key Indicators for the week of May 25 – 29
• Global Auctions for the week of May 25 – 29
• Events for the week of May 18 – 22
• Global Central Bank Watch

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