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Scotiabank

May 10, 2026

Daily Points

Daily UpdateMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsCommoditiesEnergyOther

Global markets are mixed as investors await critical job data from the US and Canada amid escalating US-Iran military tensions and a legal blow to US tariff policies.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Dual employment reports for the US and Canada are set for release, with Scotiabank expecting much weaker US nonfarm payroll growth (10k) than the consensus forecast (65k).
  • 2.The US Court of International Trade ruled 2–1 against the Trump administration's 10% global tariffs imposed under Section 122, though uncertainty remains as the ruling was specific to small business complainants.
  • 3.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating as negotiations between the US and Iran appear to have stalled, leading to military clashes and the potential restart of 'Project Freedom' to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Table of Contents

  • On Deck for Friday, May 8th
  • KEY POINTS
  • NONFARM PAYROLLS
  • CANADIAN JOBS
  • SECTION 122 TARIFFS SHOT DOWN—SORT OF
  • SIGNS POINT TO NO US-IRAN DEAL

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Authors

Derek Holt

Securities

WTI CrudeSPXTSXXAU

Themes

Labor Market DecelerationGeopolitical Escalation in Middle EastLegal Challenges to US Trade Policy

Regions

North AmericaMiddle EastEuropeUnited StatesCanadaIran