Contrasting Takes on the US Labour Market

While April US nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside with 115k gains, the household survey revealed a loss of 226k jobs and a shrinking labor force. This divergence suggests underlying market weakness that may discourage the FOMC from hawkish policy shifts.

Key Takeaways

• 1.April US nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations with 115k gains, but the household survey showed a loss of 226,000 jobs, continuing a massive year-to-date divergence.
• 2.The US labor force is shrinking as workers drop out due to being 'discouraged', which acts as a bad signal to the Federal Reserve.
• 3.Wage growth and labor productivity are cooling, suggesting expectations for cooling GDP growth.

Table of Contents

• Contributors
• Contrasting Takes on the US Labour Market
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