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Scotiabank

February 13, 2026

BCRP Holds Rates Once Again

Daily UpdateMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru held its policy rate at 4.25% in February, consistent with market expectations. Scotiabank maintains a terminal rate forecast of 4.00%, expecting the next 25 bps cut in March or Q2 2026.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) maintained its policy interest rate at 4.25% for the fifth consecutive month.
  • 2.Annual headline inflation is expected to converge to the midpoint of the 1%–3% target range soon.
  • 3.The real interest rate (2.22%) has risen above the neutral rate (2.0%), potentially justifying an additional 25 bps rate cut in the near future.

Table of Contents

  • Contributors
  • Latam Daily: BCRP Holds Rates Once Again

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Authors

Ricardo AvilaJuan Manuel HerreraJorge SelaiveEduardo Suárez

Securities

BCRP Policy Rate

Themes

Inflation ConvergenceMonetary Policy Neutrality

Regions

Latin AmericaPeruMexicoChile