US Core Services Inflation Lit Up in April

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US core CPI for April came in hot at 0.4% m/m, driven by an 'explosive' 5.5% SAAR increase in core services excluding shelter. While shelter costs rose due to statistical factors, the broad-based heat in services inflation remains a major concern for markets and the Fed.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.April Core CPI inflation rose by 0.4% m/m, exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.3%.
  • 2.Core services inflation (excluding energy and shelter) accelerated significantly, reaching a 5.5% SAAR.
  • 3.Shelter inflation's 0.6% surge is categorized as a temporary statistical catch-up from a prior government shutdown and is expected to soften.

Table of Contents

  • Contributors
  • US Core Services Inflation Lit Up in April

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Authors

Derek Holt

Securities

US 2-Year Treasury Yield

Themes

Sticky Core Services InflationFed Policy HawkishnessPolitical Impact on Prices (Tariffs)

Regions

North AmericaUnited States
US Core Services Inflation Analysis | Scotiabank May 2026 | Finvaulta