European Economics and Rates Strategy

RBC provides a daily update on European rates and macroeconomics, highlighting a upcoming UK Green Gilt auction and shifts in market sentiment regarding Middle East geopolitical risks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Oil remains the primary driver for UK gilts, and prices appear to be breaking higher following a period of optimism regarding Middle East peace deals.
• 2.The UK DMO is re-opening the 4.625% 2037 Green Gilt (4F37) auction today, seeking £3.25bn nominal.
• 3.Euro area 'flash' inflation is expected to rise to 3.2% y/y in May, driven by energy base effects and services inflation.

Table of Contents

• Overnight news
• ME geopolitical developments
• Data and events
• Gilt market outlook – 4F37 Green gilt auction preview
• Introduction
• RBC growth and inflation forecasts
• RBC yield forecasts
• RBC RV Quadrant
• Sales Literature and Market Commentary Disclaimer
• Disclaimer for Central Bank A.I. Sight™
• Disclaimer for OTC Derivatives
• Sales Note Disclosures Under the Market Abuse Regime

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