Commodity Comment Uneasy Footing

RBC Capital Markets analyzes the precarious outlook for commodity markets following a geopolitical MoU, highlighting persistent risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and strong central bank demand for gold.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Versailles MoU regarding the Strait of Hormuz is viewed with skepticism regarding its durability and potential for Iranian operational control causing shipping compliance issues.
• 2.Global LNG and crude markets are facing stabilization challenges as supply recovery in the Middle East remains contingent on safe passage through the Strait.
• 3.Central banks show strong ongoing interest in gold, with survey results indicating that gold is gaining reserve share at the expense of the US dollar.

Table of Contents

• Geopolitics, Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Clean Energy and MENA Research
• Geopolitics: Day-After Difficulties
• Oil: Suspension of Disbelief
• Natural Gas: Overtaken by Optimism
• Gold: Central Banks Still In
• US Clean Energy: Buy Back Better
• Table of Contents
• Oil charts
• US Natural Gas charts
• Gold charts
• CFTC positioning (managed money and swap dealers)
• Correlation Matrix
• OPEC Watch List, Supply & Demand Balances, and Price Forecasts
• Global Economic Calendar

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