Commodity Comment In the Thick of It

RBC's commodity strategy report analyzes the impact of Strait of Hormuz instability, El Niño weather patterns, and shifting regulatory frameworks for US power loads. The firm expects continued market messiness as physical energy and commodity markets adjust to these cross-currents.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Ongoing maritime instability in the Strait of Hormuz continues to complicate oil flows and global market normalization.
• 2.El Niño is creating weather volatility that compounds uncertainty in global energy markets, particularly regarding natural gas demand in Europe.
• 3.FERC is initiating a coordinated national review of electricity tariff frameworks for large-load integration, notably driven by AI data center expansion.

Table of Contents

• Commodity Comment: In the Thick of It
• Geopolitics: Traffic Violation
• Oil: In the Thick of It
• Natural Gas: Enter El Niño
• Gold: Debasing the Debasement Trade?
• US Clean Energy: Balancing Act
• Table of Contents
• Recent Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research
• Oil charts
• US Natural Gas charts
• Gold charts
• CFTC positioning (managed money and swap dealers)
• Correlation Matrix
• OPEC Watch List, Supply & Demand Balances, and Price Forecasts
• Global Economic Calendar

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