Report published May 25, 2026
Up and Adam: Kevin Warsh’s Fed Tenure, PMI Insights, and Summer Market Outlook
Raymond James · May 25, 2026
The US economy is showing resilient growth compared to international peers, but faces internal challenges from rising mortgage rates and a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve.
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Finvaulta summarizes Raymond James's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US economy is currently outpacing developed peers like Japan and Germany in PMI growth, though internal concerns such as contracting employment and rising input costs are emerging.
- 2.Kevin Warsh begins his tenure as Fed Chair facing a hawkish FOMC and potential friction with the White House over interest rate policy.
- 3.Historical data shows that the S&P 500 typically performs worse during the summer months of midterm election years compared to non-midterm years.
Table of Contents
- Previous Close
- Future
- Cross-Border Comparison Of PMI Data Highlights US Economy’s Faster Growth vs. Developed Peers
- As Warsh Is Sworn In Today, He May Face An Early Test Of Fed Independence
- Happy Memorial Day Weekend! What Does History Suggest About Summertime Market Performance?
- US Government Takes Equity Stakes In Quantum Computing Firms
- Mortgage Rates At Nine-Month Highs Could Jeopardize The Fledgling Recovery In Housing
Report data
Mortgage Rates Rising
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Composite PMI (Flash) | 51.7 Index points | US economy growth measurement vs peers. |
| 30-year Mortgage Rate | 6.51% | Highest level since August 2025. |
| Quantum Computing Funding | 2 billion dollars | Total funding for 9 firms in the quantum computing space. |
| Midterm Summer Performance | -3% | Average S&P 500 performance from Memorial Day to Labor Day in midterm election years. |
Reports in this series
Up and Adam is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on May 25, 2026.
Part of the Up and Adam series — view all 19 editions
Looking for the latest edition? Up and Adam (Jul 23, 2026)
- May 11Up and Adam
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- May 19Up and Adam
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