Where's the Limit

Rabobank analyzes the stalled US-Iran nuclear talks and their impact on oil markets, noting that geopolitical friction and supply chain front-loading are driving temporary price spikes and inflation risks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US-Iran negotiations are characterized as a 'Zeno's paradox', where significant progress on ceasefire and sanctions relief is constantly met with new delays.
• 2.Geopolitical escalation, specifically involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran, is causing sharp but volatile reactions in oil prices and equity futures.
• 3.Manufacturing PMIs show temporary strength due to inventory front-loading, which is likely to be inflationary and lead to a trade-off for the ECB.

Table of Contents

• Market comment
• Day ahead
• FX Strategy
• Fixed Income Strategy
• Agri Commodity Markets
• Energy Markets
• Client coverage
• Wholesale Corporate Clients
• Financial Institutions
• Capital Markets
• Disclaimer

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