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Rabobank

June 3, 2026

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Rabobank analyzes the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Strait blockade alongside Canada's entry into a technical recession. The report also highlights a new US executive order on AI innovation and safety.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The conflict between the US and Iran over military/nuclear facilities and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be resolved imminently, despite political rhetoric.
  • 2.Canada has entered a technical recession following a 0.1% GDP contraction in Q1 2026, marking two consecutive quarters of decline.
  • 3.The Trump administration has issued an executive order on AI designed to reduce bureaucratic constraints while establishing a voluntary framework for model safety reviews.

Table of Contents

  • Market comment
  • Day ahead
  • Global Head
  • Macro Strategy
  • FX Strategy
  • Fixed Income Strategy
  • Agri Commodity Markets
  • Energy Markets
  • Client coverage
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Molly Schwartz

Securities

Mythos

Themes

Geopolitical EscalationAI Regulation vs InnovationTechnical Recession

Regions

North AmericaMiddle EastEuropeUnited StatesIranCanada