Memorandum of Misunderstanding

Rabobank has revised its global outlook to reflect a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure through September 2026, leading to a spike in energy prices and a stagflationary environment. This shift forces a hawkish adjustment from central banks like the ECB and Fed as they attempt to anchor rising inflation expectations.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Strait of Hormuz is now expected to remain closed for energy flows until September 2026, fundamentally shifting the global economic baseline.
• 2.Stagflationary risks have intensified as supply-side shocks in energy and fertilizer push inflation higher while weighing on global GDP growth.
• 3.Central banks (ECB, Fed, BoE) are pivoting toward a more 'measured' but hawkish stance to anchor inflation expectations, despite weak growth data.

Table of Contents

• Memorandum of Misunderstanding
• Fixed Income
• Foreign Exchange
• Agri Commodities
• Energy Markets
• Eurozone
• The Netherlands
• United Kingdom
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• Brazil
• China
• Australia
• Forecasts

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial