I Can't Get No Satisfaction

Rabobank's daily update highlights the resilience of oil prices below $100 despite escalating Middle East conflicts and warns of a decade-long shortfall in Western munitions. The report notes that geopolitical fragmentation is forcing a radical restructuring of global supply chains and political-economic norms.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Oil prices remain surprisingly stable below $100 despite escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and intensifying conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
• 2.The West faces a critical munitions shortage due to the Iran conflict, with restoration estimated to take until 2030, necessitating a shift toward 'reverse perestroika' and localized supply chains.
• 3.Political instability and radical policy shifts (Overton window expansion) are becoming normalized across the US, UK, and Europe, impacting long-term inflation views.

Table of Contents

• Market comment
• Day ahead
• FX Strategy
• Fixed Income Strategy
• Agri Commodity Markets
• Energy Markets
• Client coverage
• Disclaimer

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