Technical Views Equity Indices

The report provides a technical analysis of global equity indices, highlighting continued US leadership led by technology and low volatility, while noting emerging divergences in European and Asian markets.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US equity market remains the global leader, with the S&P 500 surpassing 7,500 and the Nasdaq 100 showing continued relative strength, though momentum indicators suggest caution near 7,750.
• 2.Market breadth is a significant concern in the US; the rally is led by large-cap tech while less than 50% of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average.
• 3.Europe and Asia are showing divergence; while the Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225 show bullish breakouts, other indices like the DAX, CAC 40, and Hang Seng remain constrained by resistance.

Table of Contents

• North America
• S&P 500 (LT): The final phase of the Post-GFC bull run?
• S&P 500 (MT): 7,500 surpassed; next resistance at 7,715–7,750
• S&P 500 (ST): Upside potential remains, but indicators flag caution near 7,750
• S&P 500: Breadth and participation remain key concerns
• S&P 500 EW ratio: Attempt to stabilise
• S&P 500 Equal Weight: Upside potential unlocked towards 9,000
• CBOE Volatility (ST): Short-term support broken
• Nasdaq 100 (LT): 30,000 reached; focus shifts to 31,500
• Nasdaq 100 (MT): Rise in progress towards 31,430
• Nasdaq 100/S&P 500 ratio: 3.97 surpassed; possible acceleration towards 4.20
• Russell 2000 (MT): Rise in progress towards 3,317
• Russell 2000 (ST): Bearish divergence may signal a pause
• Europe
• S&P 500 vs STOXX® Europe 600 (LT)
• EURO STOXX 50® (MT): Long-term trend positive despite recent weakness
• EURO STOXX 50® (ST): Breakout triggers new rise towards 6,400
• DAX (LT): Volatility near top continues
• DAX (ST): Rise in progress towards 25,500–26,200
• CAC 40 (MT): Another attempt to break key resistance
• CAC 40 (ST): Indecision persists below falling resistance
• SMI (MT): Resistance at 13,589 within a broadening pattern
• Asia & Emerging Markets
• Hang Seng (MT): Caution below long-term declining resistance
• Hang Seng Index (ST): Tactical rise towards 26,000
• Nikkei 225 (ST): Rise in progress towards 68,200–71,843