Fixed Income Weekly Commentary

Global bond markets rallied as lower oil prices and soft CPI data eased inflationary pressures. Nuveen has pushed back expectations for the first Fed rate cut to the first half of 2027.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Treasury yields fell and bond returns were broadly positive as oil prices dropped and May CPI came in below expectations.
• 2.The firm's U.S. Federal Reserve forecast has been revised to no rate cuts in 2026, with the first cut expected in H1 2027 due to resilient jobs data and sticky inflation.
• 3.The year-end 10-year Treasury yield forecast range has been increased to 4.25%–4.50%.

Table of Contents

• Market recap
• Outlook
• Key takeaways
• WHAT WE'RE WATCHING
• Weekly fixed income snapshot
• U.S. Treasuries
• Tax-exempt municipals
• Taxable municipals
• Investment grade corporates
• U.S. high yield corporates
• Preferred securities
• Senior loans
• Securitized credit
• Global emerging markets
• U.S. Treasury market yields
• Fixed income characteristics and returns

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