Swedish June Inflation Preview

Nordea forecasts Swedish June CPIF at 1.3% as falling fuel prices exert downward pressure on inflation. Despite fading geopolitical risks, new US tariffs pose potential future upside risks to inflation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.June CPIF inflation is expected to print at 1.3%, driven largely by a sharp drop in fuel prices.
• 2.Geopolitical risks related to the Middle East have faded, but US trade policy and potential new tariffs introduce new uncertainty.
• 3.Underlying inflation remains below the 2% target, leading to expectations of no rate hikes in 2026, followed by two 25bp hikes in 2027.

Table of Contents

• Swedish June inflation preview: Fuel prices down
• Sharp drop in fuel prices in June
• The next worry is never far away
• EU tariffs taking effect
• Swedish inflation is “modest”

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