Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking
May 14, 2026
Trump Has Played His Cards Before China Visit
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsEquitiesInformation TechnologyMaterials
President Trump visits Beijing in May 2026 facing a strategic disadvantage against Xi Jinping, with the future of Taiwan and semiconductor supply chains at the center of the negotiation.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Trump enters the May 14-15 Beijing summit in a weakened negotiating position due to domestic legal issues, economic repercussions of blocked tariffs, and a lack of support from European allies regarding the Iran conflict.
- 2.The control of Taiwan and its semiconductor industry is the most critical strategic lever, with TSMC producing over 90% of advanced chips vital for AI and military systems.
- 3.China has maintained a strategy of calculated containment, withholding pressure in the Indo-Pacific to save leverage for a major negotiation regarding Taiwan's reunification.
Table of Contents
- China's focus remains on Taiwan
- A weakened Trump needs a win
- Natixis CIB Research
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Alicia Garcia Herrero
Securities
TSM
Themes
Semiconductor HegemonyGeopolitical Leverage via Critical MineralsUS-China Diplomatic Power Shift
Regions
Asia PacificNorth AmericaMiddle EastChinaUnited StatesTaiwan