Colombia Markets Rally: Natixis Macro Analysis on Far-Right Election Lead

Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking · June 1, 2026

Colombian markets are expected to rally following the first-round presidential election results, where pro-market candidate Abelardo de la Espriella took a surprise lead. He faces a June 21 runoff against far-left candidate Iván Cepeda, but polling flows suggest Espriella is better positioned to win.

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Key Takeaways

1.Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led the first round of the Colombian presidential election with 43.7% of the vote, exceeding poll expectations.
2.De la Espriella will face far-left candidate Iván Cepeda (40.9% of the vote) in a second-round runoff on June 21.
3.De la Espriella's economic platform includes a 7% annual growth target, a 70 trillion peso fiscal adjustment, and reducing the state size by 40%.

LATAM MACRO SNAPSHOT
Colombia- Markets will rally as far-right takes lead

Report data

Colombia: Presidential Election - First Round Results

Metric	Estimate	Context
First Round Vote Share (Espriella)	43.7%	Actual election result versus 24% polling expectation.
First Round Vote Share (Cepeda)	40.9%	Actual election result versus 39% polling expectation.
Proposed Fiscal Adjustment	70 trillion pesos	Economic policy proposed by de la Espriella and José Manuel Restrepo.
Annual Growth Target	7%	Projected annual growth in economic plan.