Colombia Election Essentials: Market Risks and USDCOP Outlook (Natixis)

Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking · May 28, 2026

Colombia's upcoming presidential election sees markets pricing in a right-leaning victory, with USDCOP currently showing a 4.5% risk discount. A closer-than-expected race from left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda poses significant downside risk to Colombian assets.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 4 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Markets have already priced in a combined right-leaning victory; any narrowing of this expected lead for the left could trigger a sell-off.
2.The USDCOP is currently 4.5% weaker than its fundamental model suggests, indicating limited but present election risk pricing.
3.Undecided voters represent a high 21-25% of the electorate, potentially favoring Paloma Valencia over candidates with higher rejection rates.

When will the first and second rounds of the presidential election take place?
At what time on May 31 will authorities release the first-round results?
What do the polls suggest are the most likely outcomes particularly with respect to the first round?
Who is most likely to reach the second round from the right: de la Espriella or Valencia?
What is the percentage of undecided voters?
What are the main economic proposals of each candidate?
How is the market likely to react under different scenarios?

Report data

First-Round Voting Intentions – Second-Place Contenders

Metric	Estimate	Context
USDCOP valuation vs fundamental model	4.5%	Indicates current market pricing of election risk.
Undecided Voters	21-25%	Significantly higher than the normal 12-16% a week before the election.
First-Round Intention for Iván Cepeda	38-40%	Frontrunner polling status.