Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking
May 19, 2026
2026 Mid-Term Preview: Mapping the Battlegrounds
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsOther
This report previews the 2026 US mid-term elections, highlighting a likely shift to a divided Congress as economic dissatisfaction and historical trends favor Democratic gains in the House.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Historical trends strongly suggest the President's party (Republicans) will lose seats in the upcoming mid-terms, with an average loss of 25 House seats since 1946.
- 2.Economic conditions in contested districts are worse than the national average, with 27 of 39 districts facing above-average unemployment.
- 3.The most likely outcome forecasted is a divided Congress: Democrats taking the House and Republicans maintaining the Senate.
Table of Contents
- Setting the Table – The Current Political Landscape
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Christopher HodgeJohn BriggsSelin Aker
Themes
Mid-term Election RiskEconomic Sentiment and Voting BehaviorGeopolitical Inflationary Pressures
Regions
North AmericaUnited States