Labor Update: May 2026 NFP Preview

MUFG projects 95k nonfarm payroll growth for May 2026 with a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. The firm notes that an uptick in the unemployment rate could benefit the front-end of the rates curve.

Key Takeaways

• 1.MUFG forecasts 95k nonfarm payroll jobs added in May 2026, above the consensus of 85k.
• 2.The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3% in May 2026.

Table of Contents

• Preview | Solid jobs growth momentum expected to continue in May
• Preview | Elevated jobs growth is expected in May following a strong April
• Preview | Unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% in May
• Markets | Trading the range suggests staying long into NFP if U/R ticks up