Inflation Update April 2026 CPI Preview

MUFG forecasts April 2026 core CPI at 0.29% MoM, noting that technical shelter adjustments and fuel surcharges will likely keep inflation figures from falling significantly.

Key Takeaways

• 1.MUFG forecasts April 2026 core CPI monthly growth (MoM) of 0.29% and annual growth (YoY) of 2.65%, aligning with Bloomberg consensus.
• 2.A technical resolution of the October shelter collection distortion is expected to boost MoM core CPI by 0.01-0.02 percentage points.
• 3.Fuel surcharges stemming from high oil prices are expected to keep airline fare and shipping inflation elevated despite weakening travel demand.

Table of Contents

• Preview | An outlier reading is likely needed to disrupt prevailing market view
• Preview | MUFG forecast in line with Bloomberg consensus for April
• Preview | The distortion to shelter inflation is set to be resolved in April data
• Preview | Airline fuel surcharges set to offset weaker demand in April
• Markets | Market-based 1 year inflation expectations returns to pre-war level
• Markets | At local highs, CPI would need to be much hotter to trigger a sell-off

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