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MUFG

July 2, 2026

FX Daily Snapshot

Daily UpdateFXRates Govt BondsOther

The report highlights the euro's weakness following soft inflation data and provides context for the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls report's impact on Fed policy. It also discusses shifting expectations for central bank rates in the ECB, BoE, and Fed.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Soft Eurozone inflation data and ECB rhetoric are contributing to near-term weakness in the euro.
  • 2.The US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for June is critical for assessing Fed policy; market participants look for moderation towards 110k jobs.
  • 3.Fears of Japanese currency intervention have risen due to reports of shift in tactics to surprise markets.

Table of Contents

  • Will the NFP report reinforce USD strength?
  • EUR/USD: Softer EZ inflation reinforces downward momentum ahead of NFP
  • KEY RELEASES AND EVENTS
  • CERTIFICATION
  • LEGAL ENTITIES AND BRANCHES
  • GENERAL DISCLAIMERS
  • COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC DISCLAIMERS

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Authors

Lee Hardman

Securities

EURUSD

Themes

Central Bank Policy ShiftsCurrency Intervention Risk

Regions

EuropeUKUnited StatesJapan