Morgan Stanley Investment Management
July 1, 2026
Mid-Year Equity Outlook
Market ReportEquitiesFinancialsInformation Technology
Andrew Slimmon projects continued strong equity market returns for the second half of 2026, driven by rational market behavior and rising earnings expectations for 2027. He cautions that aggressive Fed interest rate hikes remain the primary risk to this outlook.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The equity market in 2026 is acting rationally, suggesting potential for continued strong returns in the second half of the year.
- 2.Wall Street consensus earnings estimates for 2027 are likely too low and expected to continue rising.
- 3.The biggest risk to the current outlook is potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Table of Contents
- Mid-Year Equity Outlook
- Risk Considerations
- DEFINITIONS
- IMPORTANT INFORMATION
- DISTRIBUTION
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Authors
Andrew Slimmon
Securities
S&P 500
Themes
AI AdoptionEarnings RevisionsFed Policy Risk
Regions
EuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesChina
