Inside Commodities

Global energy and commodity markets are facing extreme volatility as Iran formalizes control over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. faces its smallest wheat harvest in over 50 years. Prices for Brent crude and grains are surging while major importers like India and China pivot to secure supply through new tariffs and diplomatic truces.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Iran has shifted its strategy from blocking the Strait of Hormuz to controlling access, striking energy deals with Iraq and Pakistan to formalize its control over the corridor.
• 2.The US EIA has significantly worsened its outlook on Middle East supply disruptions, projecting 10.8 million bpd of shut-in production and Brent prices averaging $106/bbl through June.
• 3.U.S. wheat production is forecast to be the smallest since 1972 due to severe drought and prohibitive fertilizer costs exacerbated by the Middle East conflict.

Table of Contents

• Top News - Oil
• QATARI LNG FOR PAKISTAN
• IRAN TIGHTENS ITS GRIP
• US EIA concedes Middle East supply disruptions are far worse than prior estimates
• DEMAND DESTRUCTION
• Top News - Agriculture
• USDA projects smallest US wheat harvest since 1972 due to Plains drought
• AgResource flags Iran premiums, China slowdown as 2026 global grain crop dips
• BULLISH OUTLOOK DUE TO FERTILISER CRUNCH, SMALLER CROP SIZES
• Top News - Metals
• Trump, Xi to weigh rare earth truce extension, but China's curbs still bite
• HURTING U.S. ALLIES
• India raises gold and silver tariffs to 15% to curb imports, support rupee
• Top News - Carbon & Power
• Top Asian LNG markets boost coal use as Iran war limits supply
• COAL IMPORTS RISE AS UTILITIES RUSH TO SECURE POWER SUPPLY
• US LNG vessels leave for China after year-long pause ahead of Trump-Xi summit
• Top News - Dry Freight
• Russian wheat export prices steady, analysts note seasonal drop in demand
• South Korea's MFG buys estimated 66,000 tons of corn in tender, traders say

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