Inside Commodities

The commodity markets face a major supply crisis as the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remove 14 million bpd of oil, potentially causing a 'red zone' shortage by July. Meanwhile, global grains production is set to decline 3% due to war-related fertilizer disruptions.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The IEA warns that the oil market could enter a 'red zone' in July-August 2026 due to the Iran war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and depleting global stocks.
• 2.OPEC+ is expected to raise July oil output targets by 188,000 bpd, despite ongoing disruptions and the departure of the UAE from the group.
• 3.Global grains output for 2026/27 is forecast to fall by 3%, driven by reduced fertilizer trade resulting from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.

Table of Contents

• Top News - Oil
• Top News - Agriculture
• Top News - Metals
• Top News - Carbon & Power
• Top News - Dry Freight