US Weekly Prospects

The report analyzes the resilient but cooling US labor market and discusses upcoming methodology changes to PCE deflators. It maintains a forecast for Fed patience while acknowledging risks from labor supply constraints.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The June employment report showed 57k in nonfarm payroll growth and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, confirming a healthy labor market but cooling from earlier surges.
• 2.J.P. Morgan continues to expect the Federal Reserve to remain patient and hold rates steady for the remainder of the year.
• 3.The BEA will revise PCE deflator methodology for software/accessories, portfolio management, and legal services starting September 30, with an expected net downward impact on core PCE.

Table of Contents

• United States
• Steady trends in the employment report
• The Fed’s own independence day
• Taking stock of late 2Q developments
• US Focus: PCE deflator methodology changes
• Global Data Watch: Which supply side are you on?
• China eyes rebound, EMAX upside intact
• September ECB hike becomes a subject to debate
• Japan under pressure
• USMCA: Slowly but not surely
• LatAm: El Niño and the varied inflation risk
• US Indicator forecasts
• J.P. Morgan US forecast
• US economic calendar

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