US Treasury Market Daily

US Treasury yields fluctuated amid geopolitical tensions and strong PMI data, while technical analysis suggests 1y1y OIS rates are oversold and testing key support levels.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US Treasury yields experienced intraday volatility driven by Middle East headlines and stronger-than-expected domestic economic data, including a cycle-high Manufacturing PMI.
• 2.The 1y1y OIS rate is in a technical 'no-man's land' after clearing support at 3.80%, with next major support identified at 4.19-4.22%.
• 3.The 10-year TIPS auction cleared 1.6bp cheap despite high end-user demand (88.9%) and the highest bid-to-cover ratio since January 2024.

Table of Contents

• Market views
• Technical Analysis
• Appendix: Position technicals overview
• Important Disclosures
• History of Investment Recommendations
• Other Disclosures
• Legal Entities Disclosures and Country-/Region-Specific Disclosures