US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

J.P. Morgan maintains a tactical bullish stance on US equities, noting strong GDP upgrades and a major rotation into Software and US-focused ETFs. Despite Middle East tensions, the report highlights low credit defaults and a constructive macro backdrop ahead of Friday's NFP print.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Tactical bullish call maintained for US equities, supported by strong fundamentals and upgraded GDP forecasts, though Middle East conflict risks warrant caution.
• 2.Software sector is showing significant bullish momentum and 'FOMO chase' characteristics following strong earnings from infrastructure and security names.
• 3.Credit default rates for High Yield and Leveraged Loans remain below historical averages, with May seeing zero default activity for the first time since 2018.

Table of Contents

• IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
• CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
• JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
• CREDIT / DEFAULT RATES
• EQUITY DERIVATIVES
• ISM-MFG
• US Data Center Construction Spending Eclipses $50 Billion
• DELTA-ONE FLOWS & POSITIONING
• SOFTWARE COLOR
• US MKT INTEL: NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS
• US MKT INTEL VIEW
• ADDITIONAL HEDGES
• NEWS LINKS
• WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS

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