US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

J.P. Morgan maintains a tactically bullish stance on US markets but warns of a potential Tech-led pullback as momentum unwinds. The briefing highlights AI infrastructure constraints and specific derivative strategies into NVDA earnings.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US Market Intelligence team remains 'Tactically Bullish' but with reduced conviction due to high probability of a Tech-led pullback.
• 2.The AI/Semiconductor sell-off may be nearing an exhaustion point, with SOX down significantly and historical data suggesting a 10% unwind often precedes an uptrend.
• 3.Derivative positioning for NVDA suggests a potential 'fat tail' outcome, with dealers significantly short gamma around the 5% up-move mark.

Table of Contents

• IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
• JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
• CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
• JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
• JPM TMC CONFERENCE TIDBITS – Mickie Nwe
• JPM EQUITY DERIVATIVES TRADING INTO NVDA
• EQUITY DERIVATIVES STRATEGY – Bram’s full note is here
• US MKT INTEL VIEW
• NEWS LINKS
• WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS
• EARNINGS
• GLOBAL CALENDAR
• POLITICAL CATALYSTS

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