Report published May 18, 2026

J.P. Morgan US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing: May 18, 2026

J.P. Morgan · May 18, 2026

JPM remains tactically bullish on US equities but warns that rising inflation signals and extreme momentum crowding increase the risk of a short-term pullback. They suggest rotating from crowded Semiconductors into Quality Software and using Energy as a tactical hedge.

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Finvaulta summarizes J.P. Morgan's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Maintain a 'Tactically Bullish' stance on US equities but with reduced conviction due to a shifting narrative toward inflation and bond volatility.
2.The performance of the 'Momentum' factor is at risk of reversal, as hedge fund net exposure has reached the highest levels since 2018.
3.Global yields are being driven higher by a 'global growth reboot' and inflationary surprises in Japan, where 30Y JGB yields crossed 4% for the first time.

IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Momentum in Reverse? Risk of Downside
SOFTWARE vs. SEMIS
ECON / FICC BULLETS
NEWS LINKS
WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS

Report data

Overall Crowding in Software and Semis

Metric	Estimate	Context
30Y JGB Yield	4.0%	Crossed 4% for the first time ever, triggering global sell-off.
Semiconductor Earnings Growth	124%	Earnings growth for the semiconductor group following a stellar season.
US 26Q2 GDP Forecast	2.0%	Feroli increased his forecast from +1.5% to +2.0%.

Source: J.P. Morgan Research / Mark Whitworth; J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy; JPM Research (Feroli). This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.