US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

JPM remains tactically bullish on US equities but warns that rising inflation signals and extreme momentum crowding increase the risk of a short-term pullback. They suggest rotating from crowded Semiconductors into Quality Software and using Energy as a tactical hedge.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Maintain a 'Tactically Bullish' stance on US equities but with reduced conviction due to a shifting narrative toward inflation and bond volatility.
• 2.The performance of the 'Momentum' factor is at risk of reversal, as hedge fund net exposure has reached the highest levels since 2018.
• 3.Global yields are being driven higher by a 'global growth reboot' and inflationary surprises in Japan, where 30Y JGB yields crossed 4% for the first time.

Table of Contents

• IDEAS & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
• JPM MARKET INTEL MORNING UPDATES
• CATALYSTS TODAY (WEEK AHEAD)
• JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE
• ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
• POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Wrap | Momentum in Reverse? Risk of Downside
• SOFTWARE vs. SEMIS
• ECON / FICC BULLETS
• NEWS LINKS
• WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA / EARNINGS

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