The Week in Commodities

A comprehensive update on global commodity markets focusing on energy chokepoint risks, LNG supply growth in Qatar, and price forecasts across energy, metals, and agriculture. The baseline outlook assumes a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The primary assumption for global energy markets is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June 2026, which is critical for normalizing oil and LNG flows.
• 2.Global LNG supply is projected to increase significantly by 60 Bcm in 2027, driven largely by Qatar's return to capacity and the start of NFE Train 1.
• 3.China is strategically hedging against maritime chokepoint disruptions by deepening energy ties with Russia, specifically via the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.

Table of Contents

• Oil Flash Note: Port Authority
• Global Commodities Podcast: What's New?
• Global LNG Analyzer: Initiating JKM forecasts with a declining premium to TTF
• Global Natural Gas Flash Note: From Hormuz to Siberia
• Precious Metals: A more conditional love
• European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: A very unusual cold
• Commodity Market Positioning Flows: Aggregate net length approaches 2022 highs
• Global Commodities Price Forecasts
• Related Research