MoF Corporate Survey Suggests 1Q GDP to be Revised Down

J.P. Morgan predicts a significant downward revision to Japan's 1Q26 GDP based on weak Ministry of Finance corporate survey data showing a 1.4% year-over-year decline in capital expenditures.

Key Takeaways

• 1.J.P. Morgan expects Japan's 1Q26 real GDP to be revised down to 1.2% q/q saar from the first estimate of 2.1%.
• 2.The Ministry of Finance's 1Q26 corporate survey showed capex (ex-software) fell 1.4% y/y, far below the consensus expectation of 5.4%.
• 3.Despite weak capex, corporate performance remains robust with manufacturing profits rising over 50% saar for three consecutive quarters.

Table of Contents

• Japan: MoF Corp Survey suggests 1Q GDP to be revised down
• Economic and Policy Research
• Number of workers and implied wages per worker
• Ordinary profit margin
• MoF corporate survey: seasonally adjusted series
• GDP
• Other Disclosures
• Legal Entities Disclosures and Country-/Region-Specific Disclosures

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