J.P. Morgan
June 3, 2026
International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing
Daily UpdateEquitiesCommoditiesFXInformation TechnologyEnergy
JPM reports on a multi-polar market driven by AI 'Agentic' cycles and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while warning that a Super El Niño could reignite inflation in ASEAN. Hedge funds are at record gross leverage, primarily driven by crowded Tech longs.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Oil prices face volatility due to US-Iran tensions and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), which is not fully priced into markets.
- 2.The AI tech supercycle is shifting from cloud-based AI to 'Agentic AI' on edge devices (PCs/smartphones), potentially triggering a massive hardware replacement cycle.
- 3.A 'Super El Niño' poses a significant inflationary risk to ASEAN economies, impacting agriculture and regional consumer demand.
Table of Contents
- MKT INTEL VIEWS
- Core inflation
- ASEAN Weather Dashboard
- IDEA & INSIGHTS - IN BRIEF
- IDEA & INSIGHTS – IN DETAILS
- OVERNIGHT RECAP
- POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE
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Authors
Andrew TylerFederico ManicardiEllen WangVictoria Campos
Securities
STMNVDAQCOMMSFT2330.TWJPKBWEFT
Themes
Agentic AI / AI at the EdgeMulti-polar State InterventionismSuper El Niño Inflationary RisksRecord High Hedge Fund Leverage
Regions
EuropeAsia PacificNorth AmericaUnited StatesIranChina