International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

Global markets are shifting into a 'risk-on' de-escalation phase based on hopes for a 60-day ceasefire deal in the Middle East. J.P. Morgan remains bullish on global equities, favoring the US and Asia, while noting that extremely high hedge fund positioning in momentum factors warrants caution.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Markets are trading on a 'risk-on' tape driven by expectations of a 60-day ceasefire extension in the Middle East, leading to higher equities and lower oil/rates.
• 2.Equity market breadth is expected to improve as a 'de-escalation rally' takes hold, though the gap between broad participation and the MSCI ACWI remains wide.
• 3.US consumer data shows resilience but a falling saving rate (lowest since 2022) as households attempt to smooth spending despite contracting real labor income.

Table of Contents

• MKT INTEL
• EQUITY RALLY REMAINS NARROW, WITH ROOM FOR BREADTH TO IMPROVE
• NEXT WEEK
• Activity tracking
• IDEA & INSIGHTS - IN BRIEF
• IDEA & INSIGHTS – IN DETAILS
• POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE
• J.P. Morgan Global Market Intelligence Contacts

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