International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

J.P. Morgan analysts highlight rising oil prices due to Strait of Hormuz tensions and a significant shift in geopolitical outlooks for Russia-Ukraine and UK leadership. Market positioning shows extreme bullishness toward US Tech, nearing potential reversal levels.

Key Takeaways

• 1.JPM revised oil price forecasts upward, assuming inventory depletion will force a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by June; Brent is forecast to average $96/bbl for 2026.
• 2.The Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached a 'conditional stalemate', with odds of a 2026 peace deal rising to 40% and a 'Finland-like' outcome viewed as the most likely path.
• 3.UK political risk is spiking as Keir Starmer faces leadership challenges; prediction markets now price a 79% chance he exits by year-end.

Table of Contents

• MKT INTEL VIEWS
• Probability of Starmer Out Spikes on Polymarket
• Burnham Is Most Likely Starmer Replacement, Polymarket Says
• Keir Starmer Is Significantly More Unpopular Than His Rivals
• Figure 1: Global oil inventories
• IDEA & INSIGHTS – IN BRIEF
• OVERNIGHT RECAP
• POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE
• Report: Weekly Wrap | The Tech Trade Rolls On
• Market Intelligence
• Data Intelligence
• Positioning Intelligence

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