Global Data Watch

June activity data showed global manufacturing momentum cooling, while concerns regarding El Niño-driven food inflation are rising, particularly in Asia. J.P. Morgan continues to monitor policy risks as developed central banks remain in a delicate balance between tightening and growth preservation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global manufacturing output PMI disappointed, slipping 0.5pt to 53.0 in June.
• 2.Rising El Niño risks threaten food inflation across Asia, particularly in India and Vietnam.
• 3.The ECB is expected to hike rates one more time in September, despite recent mixed signals.

Table of Contents

• Global Data Watch
• Which supply side are you on?
• Economic and Policy Research
• Contents
• China eyes rebound, EMAX upside intact
• September ECB hike becomes a subject to debate
• Japan under pressure
• USMCA: Slowly but not surely
• LatAm: El Niño and the varied inflation risk
• Global Economic Outlook Summary
• G-3 economic outlook detail
• Global Central Bank Watch
• Economic Activity Tracking
• JPM forecast evolution, GDP and CPI
• GDP nowcaster and recession probabilities
• Capex Nowcaster
• Global consumption tracking
• NLP of central bank speak
• JPM forecast evolution, policy rates
• J.P. Morgan forecasts vs. market
• Real policy rates
• Selected Recent Research: J.P. Morgan Economics
• Tariffs on Asia: Running to stay in the same place
• Asia: El Niño and food inflation
• Mexico: El Niño - Wild mood swings in the making
• CE3 CPI 2nd round impact: No smoke, no fire?
• Argentina 2H26: Bolstering shields for the 2027 test
• Andeans 2H26: Political reset meets constraints
• United States
• US Focus: PCE deflator methodology changes
• Euro Area
• Japan
• Canada

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